How the Fall of Assad’s Regime in Syria Highlights the Ripple Effects of US and NATO Support for Ukraine

US and NATO military support and humanitarian aid to Ukraine likely played an important role in the recent collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. Bashar al-Assad, the ruthless dictator responsible for the torture and deaths of hundreds of thousands of his own people and the disastrous state of the Syrian economy, was overthrown in a mere ten days. The swift unraveling of Assad's government marks a critical turning point in the Middle East, underscoring how external factors—such as the prolonged strain on Russia’s military due to its invasion of Ukraine—can have far-reaching consequences for authoritarian regimes.

Impact of Russian Military Withdrawal

Russia's decision to invade Ukraine in 2022 fundamentally weakened its ability to sustain its military presence in other regions, including Syria. For over a decade, Russian forces provided critical airpower, advanced weaponry, and strategic guidance that enabled Assad to retain control despite widespread opposition. However, as the war in Ukraine dragged on and Ukrainian forces, backed by US and NATO aid, mounted a fierce resistance, Russia was forced to redeploy troops, equipment, and resources away from Syria to bolster its flagging campaign in Eastern Europe.

This reallocation created a power vacuum in Syria, leaving Assad’s forces vulnerable. Without Russian air support and logistical backing, the regime could no longer suppress growing opposition movements, which quickly capitalized on the diminished military presence to launch coordinated offensives.

The Role of Hezbollah

Another critical factor in Assad's collapse was the absence of Hezbollah fighters, who had long served as ground reinforcements for the regime. With Russia's diminished coordination and its focus diverted to Ukraine, Hezbollah was unable—or unwilling—to continue its costly involvement in Syria. This loss further eroded Assad’s ability to maintain control, exposing the fragility of his government in the face of a unified opposition.

Lessons for Georgia and Other Vulnerable Nations

The collapse of the Assad regime offers a stark warning for other nations grappling with authoritarian governments and foreign influence, such as Georgia. In recent weeks, Georgia has been rocked by street protests following disputed parliamentary elections results and after the government announced the suspension of European Union accession talks until 2028, despite widespread public support for closer ties with the West.

Georgia's geopolitical position makes it particularly vulnerable to Russian influence, and the fall of Assad highlights the risks of overreliance on external powers like Russia. It underscores the importance of governments aligning their policies with the aspirations of their people to avoid instability and potential overthrow.

Strategic Implications for Western Policy

The collapse of Assad’s regime also demonstrates the strategic value of US and NATO support for Ukraine. By engaging Russia militarily in Ukraine and providing the resources needed to degrade its warfighting capabilities, the West has indirectly weakened Moscow’s ability to prop up authoritarian allies like Assad. This development raises an important question: Should the US and its allies continue to keep Russia entangled in Ukraine to further diminish its global influence?

The answer seems clear. A prolonged conflict in Ukraine not only weakens Russia’s military but also emboldens democratic movements and challenges authoritarian regimes worldwide. It represents a unique opportunity for the West to shape a more stable and democratic global order.

Conclusion

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria was a dramatic and rapid event with roots in the broader geopolitical context of Russia’s involvement in Ukraine. The diversion of Russian resources, combined with the absence of Hezbollah support, exposed the inherent weakness of a regime propped up by external forces rather than domestic legitimacy. For nations like Georgia, it serves as a reminder of the critical importance of responsive governance and alignment with public will. For the West, it highlights the strategic value of sustained support for Ukraine as a means of not only countering Russian aggression but also fostering democratic stability in regions previously dominated by authoritarian rule.